Diagnostic Department
Scientific Advisory Center "Consciousness"
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6.1. General characteristics of the conflict pattern.

State and community leaders are trying to find the roots of conflict in the NC cultural foundations for democratic reforms that led to the weakening of state structures, economic difficulties in self-interest of local elites, in complicity with foreign intelligence agencies, Islamic international organizations , etc. Indeed, many of these phenomena have contributed to radicalization, but they are unlikely to be major causes. The revival of ethnic nationalism and its attendant conflicts in the NC is still an objective and logical process, due to the very nature of the North Caucasian nations, because the activation times of conflict was not only in the wake of restructuring. Even under the Soviet regime all dissent have been harshly suppressed in the autonomous there were semi-underground and underground (disguised Communist phraseology) the national flows. From time to time external well-being of ethnic relations shook mass demonstrations and protests.

Growing signs of civil, guerrilla and sabotage, and criminal and terrorist wars, increasingly numerous conflicts between nations talk about possible conflict scenarios of events in the NC. Anticonflict (counterterrorism) actions have long been the main direction of activity of Caucasian society. Task of preserving security in the Russian society requires constant work on the nature of conflicts between different ethnic and religious groups, their influence on social and economic life of the SC, as well as finding ways to their overcome.
Periods of restoring order (constitutional) for the NC look like the violent control that take place obviously against the will of the people of the impact and cause it damage (material, moral or psychological). Certainly, the Center, having the right to dispose of the subordinate entities, and usurps the right to dispose of self-determination of peoples. It can manifest itself in different forms: direct suppression or dominance, in the manipulation, the humiliation - a clear and flagrant or subtle and veiled. To a certain degree of soft compulsion (gain directly under the Centre regional law enforcement agencies) is better than a rough guidance about (military companies). But the main problem is the ethnic hyperidentity - in this case is not solved, but merely driven into the depths of consciousness.

In the current situation in the NC confrontation has basically a disguised character with rare and small protests, but increase the psychological benefits of separation, and knowing the psychology of people at any NC small conflict, it comes down to personal level. Now the objective conflict was recognized, and even random events due to the inherent Caucasian peoples emotional and sometimes irrational, can lead to conflict interaction. For the center the personal conflict is more difficult to recognize and more difficult to solve without blood, as soon it complicating "the struggle with itself" - with stronger and longer subordinate local law enforcement agencies.

Conflicts in the NC do not arise suddenly, and mature for a long time. The reasons leading to them are diverse, and their combination in each case is special. For convenience, it can be compiled and choose from three basic factors of the conflict:

1) inflated (accentuated) the national and \ or religious identity, which catalyzes the ethnocentric and aspirations religiotsentric (identity);

2) the presence in society the "critical" mass of problems, mostly social;
3) the presence of forces capable of use in a power struggle the first two factors.

The NC has long been in a state of acute instability that is created under pressure from the outside and in the presence of interrcaucasian influential forces also interested in destabilizing. In a general sense of the masses in the near future a new "military campaign". In reports of incidents leading Ingushetia, Dagestan, the Chechen Republic. Localize the spread of aggressive building cannot, in fact, conducted operational force increase popular discontent, creating a breeding ground for the replenishment of Jamaat. Particularly alarming sharp increase in terrorist activity not related to the leaders of the Chechen underground, indicating that the ideological struggle unstoppable, update nationalist and religious ideas.

A large part of the national movements of the NC turns into organizations that are actively promoting the idea of separatism and the creation of an independent Islamic state in the country. Invisible processes of association are gaining momentum. Even the Jamaat in recent years have changed a lot - regional militias replace coming intellectuals. However, there are significant limitations on the use of force, even within the country. Only if exceed the threshold of force (participation of the regular army), once information goes to the international level. And once again, to justify the use of open and categorical action will have to apply and countermeasures - exacerbate internal divisions and Caucasian foster disunity, if necessary between individual nations, if necessary within a single nation.
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