Diagnostic Department
AREA OF GLOBALIZATION, DEMOCRATIZATION, INTELLECTUALIZATION
THINK TANK "FALCOGROUP"
Scientific Advisory Center "Consciousness"
My Great Web page
6.5.1. Interstate conflicts.

Because Russia has borders with Azerbaijan, Georgia and Abkhazia, there may be conflicts between these countries. The specificity of the trends of conflict with Azerbaijan, and Georgia is determined by one of the main issues - gravity separated of ethnic groups in Russia, where these groups see the defender of their interests in ethno-cultural and political spheres. Today it is still reflected in concerns of representatives of ethnic separated groups to obtain Russian citizenship. The conflict with Georgia is enough detail in many sources and there is no need to dwell on it separately. Georgia lost the most former Soviet republics - a significant part of the territory. In fact, de facto, it lost its 15 years earlier, but the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from the Russian side initiated the process virtually irrevocable loss of de jure. Of the situation could get some benefit: the Georgian society would be rally around this national tragedy, but the effect came back. The reason for this the actual loss of the territories has been issued erlier and, sadly for the Georgians, many of them have already got used to get that fact.

Georgia's lack of any national idea, apart from restoring the territorial integrity and the persistent desire, despite the apparent destructiveness of such a position, to continue to behave as offended by big neighbor, a mini-empire under the slogan "Georgia for Georgians" contributes to the further divergence Georgian and the Russian people. The most important factor that almost did not leave the choice for the Russian government became Georgia's aggression against South Ossetia in August 2008.

If they understand the situation with Georgia, Azerbaijan (at least until recently) conducted cautious policy and did not want to irritate Russia. The August war has become a test for the GUAM organization, and in fact has not been able to help one of its members. Even consolidated joint policy statement condemning Russia for its military incursion into Georgia, was not followed.

And yet, once Russia has borders with Azerbaijan and Abkhazia, there may be conflicts between the two countries.

The conflict with Azerbaijan. One of the main reasons for the possible inter-state conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan is the de facto division of the Lezghin ethnic group in connection with the establishment of the border. Azerbaijan holds with respect to RF friendly policies and conflict on the Georgian scenario is unlikely soon possible, but you must consider the major impact of vulnerable target between the two countries.

For the first time this question appeared (occupied a central place) in the policy documents Lezghian national movement and was officially declared the first national congress of representatives of the people Lezghian (September 1991), which provoked a sharp response Baku who found similar slogans threatening the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Congress delegates almost unanimously agreed on the need to create in the densely populated Lezgins located on both sides of the border, public unit, "Lezgistan" in the Russian Federation. Since then and to this day regularly in local newspapers and Internet sites they publish articles, there are facts that speak of the alleged discriminatory policiesagainst Lezgins by Azerbaijani leadership.

Governments of both countries had spent many efforts in quieting the situation, and this is opening of simplified crossing points, and a phased development of the concept in order to prepare and sign a bilateral agreement on dual citizenship, etc.

We should not forget about one more (if not most important) player in this situation - the multinational people of Dagestan. Lezgins are the fourth-largest nation, which is quite noticeable expressed dissatisfaction with their position in the ethno-social stratification of Dagestan. In many of their speeches, they cite the fact that their nation is under-represented in the governance structures and inter-ethnic power-sharing at the national center. This is manifested in the desire to distance itself from Makhachkala, and to develop ethnically targeted expansion in the direction of Derbent. Analyzing these factors, it becomes clear, increasingly ethnic identity Lezgins getting isolated from obschedagestanskoy (common-dagestan), and the desire to have their own republic.

However Lezgins is not only divided people. The Avars are also considered Gakh, Zagatala and Belokany regions of Azerbaijan native Avar lands. True, their numbers in areas are slightly (about 50 thousand - 20% of the total number of Avars), but there are a majority (about 55% of the population).

Realizing the complexity of the situation, the Azerbaijani authorities spend quite a tough policy of assimilation of the peoples of Dagestan:

- Practically banned the teaching of the Lezghian and Avar language at schools, only in some mono-ethnic villages in order to smooth the discontent, the teaching was allowed in the form of elective courses (no more than twice a week);
- Broadcast of Dagestan music videos is prohibited by the district TV.

- In 1998 the annual festival of Avar culture in Zakatala is banned, conducted since 1992 (when the police had arrested about 30 Avars);

- For various reasons are not allowed to register national public organizations, etc.

Not only the Dagestani peoples and Azerbaijan itself sometimes raise the issue of "the Azerbaijani city of Derbent." As an example, the propaganda video posted on a respected Azeri sites. In the clip for Azerbaijani language describes the "Great Azerbaijan", which stretches from the suburbs of Tehran to the southern outskirts of Tbilisi and from Yerevan to Derbent inclusive. Material prepared by the Ministry of National Security for the panel discussions.

More updating this question wil get if Azerbaijan helds an anti-Russian policy. While it sleeps only in latent form, through community organizations and foundations, as well as a variety of agents of influence including the Islamic.

The conflict with Abkhazia . Ossetians is divided people, and even if they now live in two formally independent states, in the presence of a strong desire for unity, has always existed and this union sooner or later going to happen. Relations between the Russian and Abkhaz are complex and ambiguous. On the one hand, here at the official level there is complete complacency and external compliance. On the other hand, at the level of the public, there are a number of serious problems that already have a significant impact on the relations between ordinary townsfolk, and in the future in general can lead to a change in the perception of Abkhazia in the social consciousness of Russians.

Ever since the Georgian-Abkhazian war of 1992-1993 Russia behaved in relation to Abkhazia extremely inconsistent. Russia's contribution to the victory of Abkhazia in the war, of course, is huge and was largely the deciding factor. However, later the same Russia stubbornly repeated the commitment of the territorial integrity of Georgia and even participated in the blockade of the self-proclaimed states that, given the huge role that Russia has played and plays in the life of Abkhazia, almost put the latest on the brink of extinction. Here everything seems clear: not wishing to quarrel with the world community over Abkhazia, which is useless for the economy printsepe Empire Oil & Gas, Russia, nevertheless, did everything to keep their hands in this magnificent instrument of pressure on Georgia. This situation with the existence of de jure Georgian territory of the unrecognized republic of its suit, and, perhaps, many Russian politicians would prefer that all this went on and on. However, in recent years there were a number of significant changes in Russian-Georgian relations.

Abkhazia has not any appeal to Russia's economy on the contrary it can compete with the Russian resorts. But the financial benefit of diplomatic relations with Abkhazia has in many respects the primary role. First and foremost, "plus" - Restore the Republic has become a near perfect tool for large-scale corruption, comparable only to that of the Olympics. Only the Olympics will be (if) only once, and restore victims of aggression the fraternal countries may for decades.

Abkhazia got not only reliable military shield to fend for themselves against attempts to revenge from the Georgian side and lay the groundwork for full development, it is literally littered with Russian money, as the federal budget and presents the various governors. For the past 20 years Abkhazians could it except only dream of. But here's the flip side is revealed: Russian investments in Abkhazia are that the oil needle for Russia itself. The needle is a needle: as long as it is, everything is fine, but it's worth it to lose, that’s all breaking and death. Although in economic terms, there is nothing actually to die: the Abkhaz economy is not just weak it does not exist as such.

It’s hard to see the apparent conflict precursors between Abkhazia and the Russia, but by analyzing the statements of prominent Abkhaz politicians, they are still there. So, like:

• Russia repaired roads and infrastructure, granted loans to revive the banking sector and the business of Abkhazia;

• Regularly made numerous visits and meetings between the Abkhaz leaders and delegations of the Russian Federation;

• Climax to the Russian Federation was in August 2008 that allowed send in Abkhazia sufficient military force to settle there reliably;

• The influx of tourists from Russia in RA increases annually.
Despite this:

• One of the stumbling blocks is the question of considering the occurrence of Abkhazia into Russia, which was discussed in the scientific community for 20 years. In 2010, celebrated the 200th anniversary of the signing of the Emperor Alexander I of the Memorandum of acceptance of the Abkhazian principality "under the High patronage and protection of the Russian Empire," which marked the fact that the Russian Empire, the USSR and in Russia today is considered "voluntary accession Abkhazia to Russia." That is the thesis of this voluntary interconnection and a disturber of the peace in the Abkhazian scientific and public debate. Most of the Abkhaz historians believe their country's accession to the Russian act of aggression that led to the termination of the state, multiple victims, and forced displacement in Turkey, almost half of the Abkhaz ethnic group, which in 1997 was recognized by the Parliament of Abkhazia as an act of genocide.

• Excess economic integration with Russia has caused concern among specific sectors of the population of Abkhazia. A close encounter in the economic and military cooperation is the basis of criticism from the opposition;

• Population and Abkhazian authorities understand the advantageous location and rich natural resources of the republic, which should determine its investment appeal not only to Russia. 200-km zone along the Black Sea is interesting not only for tourism but also for the promising oil and gas development. Even in Soviet times addressed the question of the exploration of seabed Abkhazia, the general reserves of hundreds of millions of tons of "black gold". However, any contact of Abkhazia with the third parties Russia has shown marked jealousy and categorical in establishing any extra-Russian links;

• Up to the Winter Olympics in Sochi has little time. Holding such events is impossible without taking appropriate security measures. Exceptional circumstances that may arise in the midst of events, it can damage the image of Russia in the international arena with the corresponding economic consequences - in Abkhazia and all understand that perfectly. Soon become a territory of Abkhazia buffer zone: Russia will need to counteract illegal migration, terrorism, trafficking in arms, ammunition and drugs. All this will further enhance a sense of control Abkhaz republic by Russia

• In order to prepare for the Olympic Games they are talking about the transfer of facilities under the control of Russian strategic communications of Abkhazia - the railway, airport, sea port, which can greatly relieve the transportation needs of the Russian Federation during the massive influx of visitors. Already at this stage the elite and the people of Abkhazia discuss: "Do not sell too cheap we?". And, knowing the mentality of the Abkhazians is not hard to predict dissatisfaction with any amount for the use of its territory for the Olympics.

• Abkhaz opposition is configured to support of a mono-ethnic state in which non-Abkhaz should be removed from the management. Largely on the criticism by the opposition, too insistent, and contrary to the interests of the Abkhaz people to flirt with Russian Sergei Bagapsh has been built the previous election campaign of opponents power. As a result, they lost, including because of their too radical position in relation to its northern neighbor. Anyway, in this matter the authority and opposition are unanimous: the Abkhazian elite has consistently failed to even come close the Russians to management of their country, neither in politics nor in economics. Independence has become an obsession. And not just for the power that this power is, in fact, gives, but for the Abkhaz ethnic group, which is a much greater extent than other ethnic groups inhabiting Abkhazia concerned about the problem of domination, and therefore socially and politically at times more active.

• Beginning to stabilize the situation, many Russian citizens get to buy property in Abkhazia. And local people are actively selling the former Georgian land and real estate in the coastal resort area. There are enough cases when one house was sold several times. Abkhazia has already passed a law under which property in the country can only acquire its citizens, and the land subject of bargaining is not at all, though foreigners can take it out. Thus, not citizens of Abkhazia can get houses but under conditions of low home prices and high demand, of course, there are always those who want to circumvent the law. So buyers offer home purchase by proxy, with updating to the "true man" - Abkhaz and, of course, inevitably result in "throwing"(cheat). This fraudulent scheme is extremely common in Abkhazia, one of the types of earnings in real estate.

•The type of affected is represented by citizens of Abkhazia, Russian by nationality. There are several well-established pattern of housing weaned from such people. One of the most common is the recognition of rights or the outgoing long-missing - this is when owners leave for Russia (month - two), but when he returns, it turns out that in their house strangers already live. The scale of this problem is not known until the end ( there were from 100 to a thousand court cases for 2000-2010).
USA/UK 2007-2012  © FALCOGROUP