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1.1. Organizers of the destructive scenario.
After disintegration of the USSR for many western politicians and experts there was an intriguing possibility to pass an opinion on «a new order». By request of the vice-president E.Gor in 1994 the large research project has been executed, - 2 million units of the information on 113 cases of «the state collapse» on 75 variables and for the 40-year-old period (1955-1994) have been analysed as a result to make the list of the states with high, average or low «degree of risk of disintegration». This project, especially definitive list of the states, had the closed character though its some results all the same have been published. The interest represents the allocation of four major factors which appear connected with crash of the state mode more often or signal about possibility of its total destabilization and even disintegration. They concern: absence of democracy, large external debts, the big children's death rate and considerable percent of the youth.
Russia has been checked in the list of the states with high risk of disintegration, having added thereby enthusiasm of people who saw in events of type of crisis in the Chechen Republic as acknowledgement of the academic predictions. It is absolutely unimportant that similar forecasts of disintegration of the states cannot be realized. It’s important another - an investment in these projects by influential departments of certain intellectual and material resources. The involved experts, and also clients of consumption of results of researches (the last are defined as «prospecting community, the government, politicians , scientific») become involuntary hostages of the made forecasts and are ready to work in favor of their realization, rather the reverse.
Basic elements of strategy of Washington are rather accurately registered in «the transatlantic project», finished in the Institute of Hoover (USA):
- Fastening of positions in Afghanistan;
-Expansion American and «in general western» presence at the Central-Asian region, modernization and transformation of its Governments;
- Political and economic transformation of Palestin;
- The changing of mode in Iraq and transformations in the countries of region with a support on the forces, aspiring to «keep up to date»;
- Mode change in Iran;
- Transformation not only hostile, but also friendly modes.
The main points characterizing strategy of the USA, testify that in the modern world open hegemony of Washington was established. It doesn't hide neither the American politicians, nor the high-ranking military officials, scientists. And in the estimations, the American researchers assert that this hegemony of the USA will be long-term. In particular, D.Rief from world politics Institute (Washington) notices that «... In the beginning of a new millenium it seems obvious that any state and what union of the states can't encroach in the foreseeable future on hegemony of the United States - in traditional understanding of this term» . Thereupon the American researchers result various basic substantiations of necessity of resolute actions of the USA to realize the chance given to them by history. In particular, it is a question of following postulates which give freedom of the USA and demand resolute actions:
• The USA should aspire openly to hegemony - the nature doesn't accept emptiness and if the world is not run by Washington the center of world power will simply be displaced in other capital. It will be better America operates the world, than somebody another in this world will operate America.
• Internally inclined to anarchy, the international system needs reasonable control; the USA nowadays is the unique country, capable to carry out this control, the alternative is a chaos.
• The USA is simply obliged before the people and history to block a way to any applicant for world leadership, to deprive of these applicants of means of achievement of hegemony, to weaken their power potential.
• Probably, nobody loves predominant force, but the USA will be more tolerant and humane predominant force, than someone another, more reserved, less aggressive, more inclined to carry out humanitarian guardianship.
• There is a chance of creation of the best world - on the basis of democratic values and advantages of market economy. This historical chance shouldn't be missed.
In the USA, since 1959, annually in July is celebrated so-called week of the enslaved nations when
variety of ceremonies and the actions directed on support of the people, «enthralled by the Soviet-Russian empire» are realized. In the special resolution of the congress of the USA accepted in the same occasion
among the nations, it is exclusive only force by the USSR kept in structure, the people of Lithuania, Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia, (Belarus), Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Idel-Ural, Kozakia, Turkestan appeared, . As
L.Trotsky «everyone willingly recognizes clearing of foreigners at the enemy, but not own and not at the allies».
The similar relation of the West to problems of self-determination of the people of Russia isn't a special secret and hardly it is necessary to be surprised will be many people suspecting, like T.I.Korjagina:
«the West stays in intentions definitively to destroy Russia, to divide it on some agressive and military among themselves small and weak states».
The USA today carries out a policy of a hegemonism absolutly in all directions. One of the major lines of activity is the establishment and fastening of the influence in the Caucasian region .Todays in this
way the USA have already developed considerably .
Georgia became the fifth former Soviet country which has accepted the American military men. This fact is considered by Americans as the big strategic victory. It consists that the USA had an opportunity to carry out escalating pressure in all southern border of Russia, to use territory of Georgia as base for attacks
to Iraq and Iran, and also for a control establishment over pipelines which will be used for delivery of the Caspian oil and gas to the world market.
Separatsionnye conflicts always to some extent served the purposes of external agents (at least because in the short-range plan they weaken the state). Plurality of simultaneous protests to the Center (it is possible in each republic) becomes pledge of successful separation NС with formation of the independent states.
If the planned process goes smoothly, it is possible not to stop on existing borders of republics, and to pass to nearby edges and areas. For example, the Avarian republic extends on a part of the Astrakhan region, Great Circassia - on a part of Krasnodar territory, and Nogajsky republic - on the southeast of Stavropol Territory. Reference of Stavropol Territory to republics (NСFR) has a little simplified a problem.
Everything that is technically possible, and has predisposition, sooner or later is realized. Without looking at all and so on the unsuccessful inertial scenario, the future external influence on NС becomes the main destabilizing factor for the Russian Federation. The next states of Transcaucasia which are carrying out multivector policy, it is frequent not in interests of Russia, become the base, and relative ease in activization of international contradictions a convenient occasion to intervention of world powers in internal affairs of Russia
The West has already got a successful experience of the work with the Caucasian culture: in total for one and a half of year the force right and deidealogical oppositions in Georgia have created uniform mass organization «National movement» which number has reached about 20 000 members, and all for three weeks nonviolent «revolution of roses» has won; the resettlement of the Muslim people - Turki-meshetintsi (apprx. 15 thousand) from Krasnodar territory no more than two families in one city and then fast and successful assimilation and etc. - all these examples show the presence in the future enough strong contender of Russia on the NС. According to this point of view it’s clear, the sight at ostensibly loss of the West in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as on successful saving operations of Russia .
Russian mode in South Ossetia and Abkhazia at the given stage is favourable to the West. Actually Russia was got involved in territory which can become suddenly flashpoints, and later also Antirussian. Actually, in general, it is not important where the Russian forces will be involved, the acquisition of protection over South Ossetia and Abkhazia even simplifies a problem of branch of Caucasus.
The West consistently enough tries to realize a strategic problem on an establishment of the control over all without an exception the former Soviet republics. Today's Russia doesn't represent danger, only raw materials, the sizes of national territory and presence of the nuclear weapon keep its world power status. Certainly, the leading place while occupies power interest. The aspiration to bypass Russia in questions of deliveries of power resources has been allowed to organize in the shortest terms an oil and gas transit from the countries of the Caspian area on the territory of Georgia. With oil of Caspian sea often have been connected more or less significant events on Caucasus. Actions of the powers interested in the Caucasian oil, varied from frankly power decisions to diplomatic maneuvering and use of private levers of influence that was quite often covered with ideological rhetoric.
And even territorial interest to region has appeared long before the world importance of power resources. With joining of Caucasus to Russia have started forming the models of partition, differ on the military political and ethnic formats, but always having an ultimate goal is a cardinal weakness of Empire.
Recently the attention of the West became a little low to the NС. There are some reasons:
• diligence of Russia to carry out and not to contradict the basic wishes of the West in the field of global world processes;
• world financial crisis focuses the countries on internal problems;
• West employment in large-scale military operations in Iraq, in Afghanistan;
• problems of the West with the nuclear program of Iran;
• prompt strengthening of China, as influential power;
• the Center’s hard line in relation to an order on the NС;
• surprising to the West rigid (cruel) and successful second Chechen campaign;
• demonstration of confident professional behavior of the Russian Center in Georgian-southern
Ossetia’s conflict and in the Ukraine;
• Russia agrees on placing of a military contingent of the OTAN in Central Asia, in Transcaucasia and in the Eastern Europe;
• Russia uses widely for calculations by dollars and euro and so finances West economy;
• power resources of Russia are under control of so-called «transnational» corporations;
• intellectual and financial resources of Russia constantly immigrate to the West, etc.
• the West hasn’t got the intention of the special subversive activities against the Russian Federation, enough economic, ideological and cultural war which is carried out so successfully, with the minimum costs and risk.
Analyzing the work of psychological service of the West, in the light of last operative actions in the east (Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, Tunis, Libya, etc.), it is necessary to allocate a range of the weak moments (lacks), for the purpose of their further account in the conditions of the NС:
1) ignoring of historical and cultural traditions and customs;
2) an underestimating of national-psychological features of local population;
3) demonstrative imposing of own cultural values;
4) weak knowledge of language and specificity of a situation in each republic;
5) in the majority prepared printing, audio- and video data practically are absent loans from literary works, music, from folklore of the local people, the appeal to authorities local historical and religious figures;
6) ignoring of the historical experience which has been saved up in the previous wars and confrontations;
7) the main thing is the ignorance and demonstration of disrespect for Islam.
Experience in similar conditions can't be completely shifted on republics of the NC.
It is a question of success in Georgia. The Georgian people differs not only other religion and cultural potential, but also specific national-psychological features. For this purpose it is necessary to create special prospecting division of psychological operations. In an ideal, researching of the NС should be put on a modern scientific basis, and be based on access to any necessary data of republican national communities.
External forces put pressure upon the Center as follows:
1. Information-political pressure is the statements of leaders of some countries of the West and heads of structures of the European union about «necessities of control over maintenance of free and democratic passage of repeated parliamentary elections in N.», regular visiting of the country by representatives of the foreign states and the international organizations is an original forcing of «pressure of presence».
The citizens of republic N. have got a sensation of own importance according to the opinion of the international community. Ideas and representations about inevitable subsequent support are appeared from the part of this community after they «will make a correct choice».
2. Rendering of financial support of opposition.
3. Polittechnological support of the organization and carrying out of the election campaign.
4. Correction of existing legislative base. For example, before early election in parliament of Republic Moldova which have been appointed to July 29th, 2009, on June 12th parliament contrary to the current legislation, forbidding to make amendments to the selective code less than six months before elections, has lowered a threshold for passage of parties to parliament from 6 % to 5 %, and also has reduced the minimum threshold of an appearance on elections from 50 % to 1/3 voters. By the recognition of the deputy-communist
V.Tsurkan, the amendments have been made under the offer of representatives of the Council of Europe considering that «some cases of preservation of democracy and political stability can be over legislations».
5.The organization of control over carrying out of election campaign, elections and procedure of counting of votes. Imposing of own interpretations of legality and legitimacy of elections (under the threat delegalization and delegitimization actions of the power and elections). Observers, representatives of the western mass-media are sent, «independent» exit-pol, etc. are organized.
6. Information support of a victory of opposition on the elections. It will be organized for the purpose of fastening of a victory of an opposition, its subsequent legitimization in the opinion of the population and the international community, and also for reception of guarantees of changes by the won party of the foreign policy in a direction defined by the customer-sponsor.
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