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1.2. The preconditions of disintegration of the Russian Federation.
At the end of zero of XXI-st century, the estimation of the processes proceeding in Russia, outwardly has optimism signs. Like country disintegration is impossible. The tendency of mass degradation and lumpenization of the population are overcome. The state and a power’s vertical amplify. Leading political forces show high level of concentration of political will. The control system is optimized. The lexicon of politicians is characterized by such terms, as national interests of Russia, nation health, spiritual life of a society, patriotic education, traditions of the Soviet culture, a science, formation etc.
And the preconditions (targets) for successful realization of disintegration have a system character:
1) The schemes of international conflicts «Russian - Caucasians» are distinctly formed. The Events on Manezhnaya Square weren't something casual. The destruction of «empire of the Kremlin» has already occurred, while it is not so openly and in every possible way is a self-deception , but nevertheless is obviously. The spent national policy on the NС has made inevitable an aggravation of "Russian question» across all Russia. The Russian on the beginning of 2011 enter a sharp phase of crisis of the national-ethnic identity.
2) Reliably generated interconnected conflict (dozing) on the basis of deep breaks of cultural, ethnic and religious relations of Russian and Caucasians and the main thing, - having ability to fast change in mass consciousness towards escalation;
3) Unlike recent Chechen campaigns, the future Caucasian crisis for the Russian Federation won't have even the minimum ideological cover for world community, the type as «constitutional order prompting», or «destruction of the center of terrorism» that considerably will complicate application of forces of regular army and bombing attacks. It will be well prepared typical conflict of the whole people (cultures) which enough have been kept away from each other;
4) Today the realization of the power of the Center in republics of the NC is based on relations of open domination. In some republics it is necessary to provide this condition and by compulsion ways (including the violence). The center should conduct continuously special work on a gain and deduction of the consent with the southern periphery. But the mechanism of the reliable power is not only the compulsion, but also the belief. Conquering of the territory of the NC as a power and economic basis of the power of Russia is represented obviously insufficient, absence of domination over minds of the population automatically assumes the instability of this power;
5) Presence of the heavy both not resolved social problems and the rupture of the power caused by it with a society, and also in secret arrangement of a part of local authorities with separatists;
6) World outlook inadequacy of the Center. It is expressed, first of all, in the rough power methods of influence inherited from the past. More than two centuries in Russia dominated representation about the Caucasian people as separate of Russian. Processes occurring in them saw as the movement to constant separation. Accordingly, and the threats to the state the Center found as an existence of weight of the separatists accumulating force. Means of overcoming of this threat were transformed in strengthening of power structures. Any reasons of deep contradictions and a distance of cultures and religion were perceived by the Center as the lyrical metaphor specifying in the minor factor. So, the Center in the future will not be ready to actions against not military ideological (cultural and religious) separation conflict and at it won't have got possibilities to apply habitual rough «mechanical» force.
8) Possibility of wide using of weakness of integrative devices of the multinational Russian Federation. The respect for a freedom of worship and observance of ethnic traditions and customs becomes a screen and scenery behind which there is a separation. In Russian and Caucasian population it is already introduced successfully the idea of inadmissibility of mutual assimilation is cultivated. This inferiority of statehood is put in the mechanism of disintegration of all multinational countries; In the relation of seperezionniy conflicts the states with national territorial formations are vulnerable. Those are the states which are because of various reasons have to "respect" territorial ethnic identity. On the contrary, the states focused on assimilation and observing categorical rules to any ethnoterritorial formations, are tolerant to such scenarios.
Let's tell, separazionniy conflict is impossible in the USA as this state, without dependence from ethnic and religions, regards as of paramount importance concept «the citizen of America» and «mixes» all newcomers (for example, history with resettlement of Turki-meshetintsi, 2003). A step separating national-territorial federalism from separatism is very short.
8) Development of crisis of the government caused by factors of economic and/or social character
- hunger, wars, poverty, oppression, social injustice. The system of world global capitalism enters a strip of crisis and the subsequent inevitable stagnation, coinciding with a bearish wave of a big cycle of Kondratiev. It will lead inevitability to the changing of all system of the international order, occurrence of new provocations, risks, and conflicts. The danger of a situation is that our geopolitical competitors won't refuse the information struggle for influence in the post-Soviet territory countries. The opposition will be interfaced to constant forcing of a psychosis round «intervention» of Moscow in affairs of neighboring countries.
9) It is impossible to exclude the disintegration of Russian part of the Russian Federation on a number of the independent states at preservation of a generality of language and culture as it has occurred with Spanish colonies in the South America in the beginning of XIX century.
Analyzing passage of velvet revolutions, including reorganization («perestroika»), it is really visible that the loss of control from the side of the power becomes the main process. Being at the crossroads between action and inactivity in respect of reaction to deviations, the power each time selects inactivity but as it not disposal, and reusable process of a choice, the situation gradually passes in a new condition. When the power nevertheless comes into effect, the old toolkit doesn't help any more, as it is necessary to make decisions in new conditions to which the state system is not ready. Training which agents of national security took place as a result has no value, as they trained on crowd dispersion, instead of make orders.
Preconditions in the destructive scenario are expressed among other and in noted by M.Vinogradov
characteristic: «the General law in revolutions on the post-Soviet territory exists - it is connected with psychological influence of precedent of creation of change of the power in neighboring countries». Thus Russia, unlike the Post-Soviet countries, «is closed» by that it has taken place the period of political change: «Our Russian revolution has already occurred, and for Russia was enough velvet. Today the storm places only in a part of the heads of «rebellious elite». The population supports competent management, market development and social programs. The next 30-40 years the country waits forward development». But this is a false representation as the same with the Post-Soviet countries the expectation of the West has not been
realized, what corresponds «maxima of Zlobin» - «and who has you told, what the disintegration of the USSR is finished?»
J.Krupnov also doesn't accept similar calmness: «Has put here at all in any short-sightedness of ruling persons. The matter is that behind a train of revolutions stand essentially new paramilitary (i.e. semimilitary men) technologies of political action, and behind them - more than semicentenial experience of the USA and Europe. To reproach high-ranking officials from an environment of presidents that they didn't
see direct danger, means today what to reproach zulusy with absence of representation of the control over them by companions from space».
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