AREA OF GLOBALIZATION, DEMOCRATIZATION, INTELLECTUALIZATION
THINK TANK "FALCOGROUP"
Scientific Advisory Center "Consciousness"
My Great Web page
1.3. Realization of the destructive scenario.
For realization of so scale plans it is necessary huge financial, ideological and military maintenance which can't be carried out without support of foreign countries. Split in elite is necessary for a victory its unconsolidation and the presence of active and ambitious opposition. If military creation means a religious-emancipating underground, recruiting and preparation of insurgents, the organization of the educational centers and a wide network of diversionno-guerrilla bases and camps but the ideological plan it means using of several global and traditional superideas (Panislamism, pankturism, creation of Great Circhessia, etc.). All these superideas supplement and strengthen each other.
The scenario of operation of disintegration of the Russian Federation isn’t declared openly. And meanwhile today there are no documentary acknowledgements of presence of the special scheme of disintegration, but as the bases for this conclusion there are a lot of facts in which already it is necessary to see certain system serves: total segregation of the Russian society on Russian and Caucasians (religious, ethnic, cultural). In the presented program (in the presence of enough strong preconditions) it is necessary to rally quickly the big weight of people by any solidarity, and then for short term to organize crowd and to direct. Difference from the previous Chechen separative movement in that, as the purpose, both a problem, and actions are set strictly under the schedule - the supports of the Russian mode are broken step by step that gives a vent on its points of vulnerability. Household opposition «they have got there, in Russia» which could be met in the country for a long time, from Kaliningrad to the Far East (especially on the NC), had got value of political geography.
Efficiency of the scenario of disintegration can't be provided by carrying out of operational actions especially on the territory of the NC. Easing and destabilization in any part of the power of the Russian Federation will be an inductor of the spent scenario. Main principles of the induction (peace additions of military strategy):
• the territorial. Destabilisation should pass as minimum in 4-6 territories (besides the republics of the NC). The Most «kindled» territories are frontier (Stavropol and Krasnodar territory, Rostov and Astrakhan), regional (Kaliningrad and the Far East), in-Russian ethnic (Tatarstan, Bashkiria) with obligatory support of meetings and mass riots in Moscow;
• the economic. Crisis of resources, campaigns for sharp reduction of receipt of hard currency in the Russian Federation as a result of reduction of prices of oil , in cooperation with Saudi Arabia, and also restriction of export of natural gas to the west; widely organized technical misinformation for the purpose of economy destruction; universal financial problems; currency macrooperations; huge expenses for safety (operations on the NC); war of oligarchical structures etc.
• the political. Disagreements in imperious commands; transition periods (elections, the changing of the power); sudden death of the leader of the power etc.
• the psychological. Duplicating from a cinema to news editions about inevitability of disintegration of the Russian Federation;
• the geopolitical. Strengthening of untirussian movements in all republics of the ex- USSR. Especially in the Ukraine, Belarussia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Abkhazia.
The plan of disintegration of the Russian Federation on North Caucasian line will have, most likely, two plots, depending on participating republics:
- Merge of several republics in uniform new, larger state (interrepublican consolidation);
- Internal rallying of the people during smoothing of distinctions between groups available in it (intrarepublican consolidation) and an exit from the Russian Federation.
Activation of Ingushetia, the Chechen Republic and Dagestan will inevitably lead to revolt and jerk to independence in the western part of the NC. Thus Chercassians will raise a claim to all Black Sea coast of the NC to Novorossisk and Anapa that will create the powerful center not only internal, but also the international pressure. The Chercassian diaspora «will set» on weakened and transforming in extraction Russia the countries of the Near East and, probably, Turkey where the diaspora possesses considerable influence. Technical difficulty and simultaneously ease of this scenario consists that many people of the NC live on the territory of the republics, and on adjoining territories of formally Russian regions, and on considerable removal from republics.
Obviously that the western analysts quite indifferent to destiny of internal part of the NC, show huge enthusiasm concerning the idea of tearing away from Russia the Black Sea of the coast of the NC, as having strategic value for a policy in water area of the Black sea and for the routes of transportation of oil. Stimulation of ethnic cleanings in the western part 0f the NC: expression of the Russian-speaking population goes and hasn't finished yet, and in Adygea (where it makes three quarters of the population), it is much possible to understand, only starts.
As the proof of a reality of the offered scheme the developed and tested information-psychological technology of purposeful destabilization, disintegration and formations of the most different new countries without obvious participation of external forces, with use internal separazionist, international conflicts, «velvet» revolutions, student's mutinies, postelective protests, etc. serves. These abilities have reached that level of a maturity that there was a possibility to develop quickly strategy with reference to concrete sociocultural conditions. Such world concepts as «democracy threat», «adherence to freedom ideals» and etc. are reliably generated. All listed allows the West to declare the NC a zone of the vital interests during the appointed moment.
It is visible that the West will lean, first of all, against developed antagonism of Russian and Caucasians, and fundamental event in destiny of the Caucasian society the rupture with Russia becomes a separation debut. Considerable and influential part of the population, having obeyed to suggestion, will drop out of traditions and norms of a clan society, and its new values and «style of life» will lean on western material and a social base. Religious preferences will be carefully considered, contradictions between radicals and preaching traditional Islam, and the main thing - an official recognition of external forces -
«world public opinion» (West) and the countries of the Near East will disappear.
As a matter of fact, deconstractive scenario is the real information-psychological process directing the consolidation of a mass social base of the Caucasian people on increase of confidence of the correctness and practicability of idea of independence, on strengthening of psychological stability, moral spirit, political, social and all other kinds of activity which are today under the influence of Russian Center.
USA/UK 2007-2012 © FALCOGROUP