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1. THE SUBSTANTIATION OF DESTRUCTIVE SCENARIO.
The reserve of pressure of the Center on republics of NC practically runs low today, it glimmers only on financing, the creation of Nothern Caucasus Federal Region for example. Any pressure hardly is more than cost of "payment" for calmness is shown instantly by republics as obvious discontent.
Today the main help to all Antirussian сепарационным forces is the Center it-self, its national and religious (realized or not) policy. It doesn’t see (or doesn't want to see) the main thing, for the present not the monolithic opponent on NС - radical religious-ethnic ideology, but also does everything that this ideology prospers and increases.
Probably, making advances, training, feeding, tutoring, supplying future «enemy» the Center shortly again will want to repeat already fulfilled Ichkeria’s scheme. But there is also a probability that «enemy» will appear this time wiser, it will not begin to be got involved in power fight and won't react to any provocations. So will happen, without external forces Russia will find independence of Caucasus, and the West can act only in a role of the assistant - the accelerator.
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