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2.4. «Pacification» of Caucasian situation.
Basic feature of future and successful Caucasian separatist conflict is a nonviolent character or, at least, creation of full illusion of safe nonviolent succession of events. It will neutralize the main force which at the Center is always ready for a separation stop - weapons. To achieve independence peacefully, of course, is not a simple problem. It demands the big strategic ability, the organization and planning. That it is the most important, it demands intellectual forces.
Using an immemorial principle «divide and dominate», pressing on such weak points of the
Caucasian nature as vanity, jealousy and arrogance, the Russian Center always achieved successes on the NC. Today the main danger to carrying out of nonviolent operation is represented by radicals. But during too time, they are also one of the basic favourites of movement. Radicals are that part of the Caucasian society, which at correct management capables to perform any «dirty» work. Feature of the Caucasian radicals is the fact that among them are available both Islamites, and nationalists, they are united by the general hostility to all Russian and to an available political mode. They want equally independence, i.e. a withdrawal of troops from the territories, and an interdiction of any intervention (especially, armed) in their internal affairs, and the main thing - definitively to clean «dissolute» Russian culture with the NС. Today though radical cells also are separated, but exist in each republic. It is possible to consider as the basic place of localization djamaats, however the lion's share of the people adhering to radical sights, doesn't enter into any organizations.
For drawing up of the future plan of ideological work, radicals it is convenient to divide into groups on their main objectives: national-liberation and religious-morally-ethical and if it is necessary to unite as - «dissatisfied» (deprived) of local authorities and money. In each republic there will be approaches to search «dissatisfied». For example, in the Chechen Republic and in Ingushetia, most likely, it will be blood feud people of the president leading at this moment and from conflicting generation (teyp); in Dagestan if the president will be avarets (nationality), search «dissatisfied» will occur among Dagestan people (darginets); in double republics it will be the leaders of the national organizations with desire of creation of Great Circhessia, here and Adygea etc. will join.
One of the main reasons of failures of «liberators» on all NC is the nationalism. It is impossible to move in one direction when nationalist sentiments get the best practically in all djamaats. Already usual armed revolt is admited today unreal, and radicals were inclined in favor of guerrilla war and creation of the refined city underground. However guerrilla war doesn't benefit and doesn't provide the decision of tasks in view. The problem is exhausted in depth and increases the numbers of blood feud people, thus, proceeding guerrilla war is a good protector of separation in each Caucasian people and serves as a control lever for the Russian Center.
«Pacification» of the Intracaucasian relations spent in advance, both international, and intraconfessional (traditional Islam and radical) solves some strategic problems:
- Coincidence to positions of the official Center, the local religious and secular power, will allow to study even more strongly their fear, it is «anesthesia» strategy;
- Allows to study more deeply a situation and to start to approve some operative actions (assemblies, meetings etc.);
- Will adjust new and to renew old communications with the necessary organizations of the West and the East on financing and training maintenance;
- And the main thing to carry out preventive maintenance future after reception of independence of disturbances.
In general the scenario with radicals can seem at first sight convenient (Nalchik, 2005), but work with them will create a lot of serious problems. Here it would be better to underline some unreliable moments:
- The Caucasian radicals is difficult enough operated group, and, first of all because of washing out of borders between a usual crime and Islamic ideas (attacks and robberies were considered and considered from time immemorial as valor for mountaineers);
- Because of constant internal enmity with displays of relentless ambition there is a huge probability that republican djamaats won't hang together a necessary minute;
- The majority of radicals will achieve only own economic well-being;
- If also in places services of radicals, only nationalists are required. Radicals-Islamites (salafits) become the first targets of provokers. Their ideas of creation of Caucasian Imamat with strict shariat’s board will cast the NC into the universal religious conflict. Statements about the uniform Muslim nation - Umma, unity of world Moslem appear insolvent and do not correspond realities of Islamic multiculturalism of the NС. Therefore the problem will be not only to use terrorist methods of salafits groupings and service of their members, but also to try to explain to them about necessity peace, not criminal scenario of struggle.
Quite legitimate authority, having lost authority, loses the legitimacy and becomes "powerless". If in political arena there is a skilled competitor, he this lawful, but eliminates "the powerless" power without effort. So that occurred in the Post-Soviet Chechen Republic. The local authorities has gained authority and has become legitimate, thereby get also legality - it doesn't need any more formal blessing of the Center. Anybody wasn't excited later with a question of legality of formation of Ichkeria, only impreparation, separation and proeast orientation of Ichkerian power has imparted the authorities to failure.
Nonviolent character of separative actions from the population (especially if they are made by intelligency) dulls ability even the Center to see threats and serves as «anesthesia». The center ceases to react to signals which in direct opposition would entail the most resolute actions.
For example, if separatists receive financing from the foreign states for preparation for «independence» in case of habitual «power» actions of separatists, like acts of terrorism, still it would be possible to expect active actions on suppression of these financial streams, but at the nonviolent scenario of separation financing from abroad is conducted absolutely openly, and the Center as «hesitates» to prevent it. And financing can be renew and from east Islamic sources which have well studied the Caucasian realities during the Chechen campaigns.
As one of variants, is so-called «campaign for free and fair elections». Thanks to the grants the international non-governmental organizations receive money for concrete projects, including "remedial". Usually international organizations in the charters stipulate that don't interfere with internal political life of the country in which territory work, but in this case it is a question of organization financing, whose activity will play a pivotal role in the organization of «spontaneous» street protests which will lead to power change. Problems of one organization will include mobilization of voters (the program «go on elections»), the problems of others are supervision over elections and creation of computer lists of voters.
Separation process can provoke undesirable hiperethnization and archaization of the people, strengthening of rodo-breeding consciousness. When separation process enters solving stage, to keep the Caucasian people in peace frameworks it will appear the most important and very uneasy problem. «Transitivity» of the period will sharply aggravate desire of the majority of the population of republics to homogenize the societies, and from here - will be shown intolerance in relation to any «another», including to the next Caucasian people. Even the Intracaucasian conflict limited in any territory will help the Russian Center and will allow it to revive overwhelming advantage (regular army and weapons). It is greetings to disintegration and so not monolithic Caucasian society, will push away its moderate part from separation. In case of provokers always near at hand are available numerous of djamaats, acting under the flag of Islam. That is why use of radicals is dangerous and not absolutely a separation well-tried remedy. The rigid discipline of peace course of all process is a key to success and should be supported, despite any provocations (including terrorist). An evident unfortunate example of separation , is returning of the Chechen Republic in an old state of dependence after temporarily successful Khasavyurt agreement.
In an operational stage comes the third step of work with mass consciousness (water drain) - feature of mass consciousness of the population in a society which worries deep and long crisis of ideology here will brightly be shown - it becomes a crowd, without leaving at all the houses. It becomes an atom also loses ability to keep any one steady position. It is a question about artificial social disaster created on rather short time. In it two painful spheres covering all population of the NС should be involved: national and religious.
After the image of the collective enemy of the people is created (the infection and crystallization), during some time is made «primary heating of a situation». «The demonstrative base» which thanks to mass-media raises emotions (lot of shot at war operations by the Russian agents of national security, the organized march Russian nationalists in Moscow, Caucasians brutally killed by skinheads etc.) steals up. Work with image of authorities in power (the local president) begins:
- The attention to the president is fixed, and do its involved in all having problems (social);
- The generated negative image is used, in particular, at the expense of instructions on those wrongful acts which he has made (has enriched the relatives etc.);
- Aggressive actions of crowd concerning the president, realizing punishment ideas (portraits are burned in public) are provoked.
Concerning the local Prorussian power cultural norms are deleted. Very soon it almost ceases to be the representative of the people. Both moral and instinctive restrictions on struggle methods are deleted. Impossible is also any form of a self-identification with the power that is a psychological basis of internal legitimacy of any political mode.
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