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3.1.1. The strategy of the operation.
A considerable part of the features of political behavior of the Northen Caucasus society is predicated ethnic mentality, which has the following characteristics: conservatism, strong neighborly links of kinship, a focus on national interests, emotion perception, speed spreading of rumors. Significant role is played by local authorities, who often control the local media and thus affect the population in the first place title, which differs quite noticeable controllability. Choice in voting is not due to conscious political preferences (what the majority has not got simply), and belonging to certain ethnic groups. Each of these groups provide to one or another candidate stable base of electoral support. The same act of voting is just a sign of solidarity of the individual with his band.
The campaign for non-recognition of the elections is also a campaign against the government, elections are only the beginning point for swift actions. Focusing on the point of elections you can:
- to facilitate principally the preparation for regime change, because and elections, and change of regime organizational based on the same type of forms of organizational structures.
- There is one and the same kind of informative campaign that demonizes available at this time of the ruling regime.
- Elections are themselves critical point, which can be used for different purposes.
To select the tactics of the operation you want to see specific trends in the recent elections held on
а) any position, according to both the public and senior leaders of the republics, is bought, and is expensive. In fact, the power structure recalls a commercial structure with a high level of «profitability». «Any position in Dagestan is bought and sold», - said Speaker of the Parliament of the Republic through one of the major newspapers and even named the specific numbers, the position of head of district administration is 300 thousand dollars, a Minister is 500 thousand dollars . The results are absolutely predictable, as dependent on the magnitude of funds spent by the candidate. There is a «struggle for votes, and for control of the Electoral Commission».
b) lists of candidates are not corresponded to national security, that even the authorities are saying about the elections, as catalysts of political, ethnic or even military conflict. For example, the president of Ingushetia, said that among the candidates there are the names of militants, but he promised to do everything to prevent such people to elections - «but even if someone passes, will do everything to a criminal prosecution, a law to remove them from power». In Chechnya, people are not satisfied that the candidates are too young, according to the Central Commission of the Republic, 60% of candidates in local government are young people under the age of 30 years, associates and odnoteypovtsy(the citizens of the same tayp) existing president, and it undermines the traditional authority of elders. In Dagestan, the president is not at all satisfied with the existing system of municipal elections and insists on the principle of forming the national authorities in the country. According to him, earlier in Dagestan was a special electoral system - the national-territorial districts, quotas of seats in parliament. The Avars have traditionally received the presidency, Dargins the position of a Speaker of Parliament, a Prime Minister was Kumyk. Rejection of this system has a detrimental effect on the balance of forces in the republic, the president is sure. In Kabardino-Balkaria election campaign at the local level is exacerbated the problem of the Balkar people and the territorial dispute over ownership of municipalities.
c) power in the republics primarily exists due to its distribution between «strong» names, clans, clans and an ordinary election (no shares, and bribery) as a tool to replace pro-Russian government is difficult to implement. In republics there is no almost any opposition, except the people. Today, the Republican elections are tightly controlled action, providing 95% of the alleged approval of the people of candidates already selected by the Russian Center. Opposition candidates only have the opportunity to participate in elections, sometimes they are intimidated or even liquidation. Colorful example of today's reality is the elections to the Duma (02.12.2007), and the election of the President of Russia (03/02/2008). The degree of the electoral activity of the electorate, and loyalty to the pro-presidential party and the «candidate of power» is growing as we move to the southeast. Maximum degree of support shown recently still rebellious Chechen republic, not far behind Ingushetia and Dagestan, «the Chechen people support the policy of the party and the government! The North Caucasus manifests civic awareness and turnout breaks records! In Ingushetia, there is no other party, except for «United Russia» did not quite get even 1% of the vote. In Kabardino-Balkaria, a turnout of 96, 7% for the ruling party voted 96, 12% (for the Communist Party 1, 72%). In Chechnya, 99, 2% came to the sites, and 99% of them supported the «United Russia». Against this background, especially Dagestan and Adygea are seemed oasis of pluralism. In Adygea, for «party of power», voted 74, 49%, in Dagestan - 91, 44%. In turn, the leaders of the republics argue that the CEC (central election committee) officially declared results of elections in the republics of the NC untrue completely and is not something surprising and unpredictable.
To implement the scenario of separation, associated with any election (referendum), listed items these are the best conditions. The proof is quite successful conduct of the protests, «I disagree» in Ingushetia, despite its spontaneity (it was collected 90 thousand signatures and the youth are bred on the street). And you can call the incident in the city of Derbent significant: about a third of voting stations were not opened at all, other voters in small groups could visit the others, in the evening of election’s day the crowds of (50-200 people) non voted gathered spontaneously, shootings, kidnappings, fights were organised.
In Makhachkala, they tried to explain this short-term transformation of the Derbent in the hot spot as the deliberate provocation of the opposition. According to the CEC of Russia in connection with the situation in Derbent on the day of election eight criminal cases were brought on the facts of the obstacles election fraud, violence, etc. However, these circumstances did not prevent the Central Election Commission to recognize the elections as valid, because, they said there, voted 50% of the citizens voted there. Everything is more surprising because the struggle was between the United Russia. As you can see the «party of power» even within the same region is not always uniform.
Thus, summing up the situation in the NC and the analysis of post-Soviet scenarios of change of regime for the republics of the NC is more suitable Kyrgyz’s variant. Scheme in Kyrgyzstan demonstrated some optionality of many standard items, but you can select several significant deviations:
- A small number of people taking part in the protests;
- Lack of a clear leader;
- Relying on family members did not pass;
- Main activities outside the capital;
- A limited period of protest actions.
The population of the NC is still too weak to create serious trouble for the power. Although the impact of the Centre can be weakened and the international community, but its decline is largely dependent on internal factors (strong repressive regime begins to cause resistance). The main features of conducted recent disintegration of the countries (the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries) on the future of Russia's disintegration are the main protagonists. If the first has intellectuals (ideological), then during the
separation of the NC protagonists will consist of several groups and they will speak in turn. First of all, it is necessary to establish what are opposit sides.
On one side (top): local pro-Russian government, its key aides in the face of power structures, which are also in many cases can count on the help of the Russian army and the Russian Centre itself. By the other hand (below) is the population of a republic of the NC. Pressure from below encounters two types of response from the top: the repression and reform. Both can be success and failure in the separation process. And here a third part begins to play an active role (external player), which even as an observer already has a significant impact on current events. External player takes part in neutralizing the actions of the authorities, and to stimulate the actions of the opposition. The level of probability of victory in these cases is higher.
One of the main rules of tactics is the knowledge of traditions of the Caucasian community, because the reliance on tradition can give victory to the popular movement, which has no more resources. It means the using of older people (council of elders).
It must be emphasized that the presented scenario is in the nature of mass, popular, and that on the first side there is no the Russian people. The second remark is especially important. During the 20-year-old preparing for the Russian people had already crystallized the protest will against Caucasians:
- indifference to the distinctions between a Caucasian people, «although the Georgians, though Chechen, all of them ....» This indifference was already formed at the first inter-ethnic conflict («what the Ossetin, that Ingush, that ...»);
- A sharp increase of the protest because of the Chechen wars and terrorist acts on Russian territory;
- Ethnicization (encapsulation) of the Russian markets, etc.
- As for the border regions and districts (demarcation line), the influx of Russian migrants from the republics has much impact on the overall growth of radical national-patriotic sentiments.
Most experts say that the revision of existing borders of the RF and even the formation of new subjects is very real because of the weakness of the federal legislation and the relative ease of the referenda on the issues. Thus, the main scenario will be - organized and managed protest of the population of republic(s), having a reason as an electoral fraud. The question of exactly which elections will be playing the scene is not so important. It is clear that create a leader is much easier and cheaper than creating an image of a political party.
Of course, the best option of separation is a referendum of self-determination of the people (the independence and secession from the Russian Federation, or first require the president to be designated not by Moscow, but the people), especially the Russian people will support any desire of separation, but there were no third military campaign. In the super-centralized system of nomenclature of the republics is extremely difficult to come to power, if do not previously achieved popular election of the president. The referendum will be held, will be made if all the proposed scheme is executed, i.e. based on the work of the inertial scenario we can derive an abstract scheme, details and content of which will vary in each republic.
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