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3.2.2. The escalation of international conflicts.
The escalation of ethnic conflict will be necessary in extreme cases, if there are difficulties in the implementation of the basic scenario. This is the easiest to implement, but the most complex in the subsequent pacification choice. The main pursued goal: the kindling of many international, inter-republican conflicts Center «gets stuck in a situation» - will occur the destabilization in the management of the region. There is a certain minimum level of human rights violations of which are no longer purely an internal affair of the state and justify external intervention to prevent the threat of proliferation of humanitarian problems in the center of an international humanitarian crisis.
Thus, the West can achieve, and one of the intermediate objectives of the operation - the creation of the international legal framework for finding peace observers in the republics. Moreover, it will be able to internationalize the conflict. In Operation Support Democracy and Independence, with the West will be willing to participate and peacekeepers from the Middle East. This will significantly reduce criticism from the international community in the negative consequences of the separation process.
On the NC, along with the national republics administrative ethnic areas began to emerge. Induced resistance to corrupt ethnoklanovosti encourages national isolation. Administrative ethnic areas these are a convenient container with preservation of contradictions, conflicts in the future flammable. Ethnopolitical dissatisfaction everywhere becomes a source of permanent conflict, and national-territorial formations give this process a catalytic effect. The main motives are redistribution of territories and lands, redistribution of material and financial resources.
For example, the dismemberment of Dagestan and the formation of dwarf national republics and regions (federation by autonomy of each nation), excitement and provocation of national consciousness in distorted form, at the level of persistent cultivation of the national idea.
The existing boundaries of administrative units mismatch and ethnic areas in the NC under the skillful use may lead to accentuation of problems divided ethnic groups, and then to the numerous territorial and border conflicts. To stimulate this kind of conflict situations need to work with in-depth change in the ethnic identities of citizens. On the growth potential of aggressive play well today incompetence, cronyism and ambitions of national leaders.
As one of the options should be considered and the so-called «conflicts of the dispersed intensity» - these are not inter-ethnic conflicts in the republics of the NC and beyond: the Astrakhan Region, Krasnodar and Stavropol regions. So the task of these conflicts will be «the launch of the army bayonets inside Russia».
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