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3.2.4. Elite revolution.
This type of transfer of power in the «right hands» is difficult to carry out today in the NC, but it is also possible on the transition level. The second scenario («Elite Revolution») - a conspiracy of the ruling elite in regard to its formal leader and/or another part of the ruling elite (the other cliques, clans, etc.). This scenario attempted to carry out in Azerbaijan, representatives of the old guard in the government, President Ilham Aliyev inherited from his father. Despite the obvious opportunities and strengths of this scenario, it could not be implemented due to the strong position and the political will of the young president. The weak part of this scenario is its probability of conspiracy. An inevitable consequence of the agreements among the ruling elite will be the inevitable spread of information about social networks, at least on the level of rumor. Information will inevitably «go to the side». Therefore, the scenario of «Understanding the few» is not optimal in terms of feasibility. As the events in Azerbaijan, the president dispatched officials -conspirators to resign in the ten days before the election that allows suggest that he had knew about it much earlier.
Niccolo Machiavelli, describing «elite revolutions» i.e. conspiracies that involve several people described the strengths and weaknesses: «As history shows, the vast majority of these plots are organized by people of noble birth, close to the emperor. Other people do not have the capacity to organize such a conspiracy, and besides, it would be extremely unwise, because people, who are far from the royal court and takes a small position in society has neither the capacity nor the energy to bring this plan into execution. First of all, people without power, unable to find reliable allies. They cannot promise those who participate with them in the plot, nothing that would justify such risk. So, if they place their trust to two or three people, there is a traitor among them, ruining everybody».
Ethnoelita of republics this is the thing that in modern historiography taken to determine as «tradition» patrimonial «institutional structure of Russian society», or according Rashkovskii E.B, «the tradition of irresponsible sovereignty». Republican government thinks itself only in response to the Russian center, but not in front of his local community. The tradition of irresponsible sovereignty was the brightest demonstrate with government of Ichkeria after Khasavyurt agreement.
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