Prognostic Department
USA/UK 2007-2012  © FALCOGROUP
Scientific Advisory Center "Consciousness"
My Great Web page

This prediction is an analytical representation of the situation on the NC, given the current dynamics of the demographic, cultural, social, psychological and ethno-political processes without the significant influence of the Russian Center, East and West. The forecast is based on existing trends and is based on the fact that these trends will dominate in the future, and for this reason is a little conservative.

In the NC some seeds of future nation-states mature, state languages, elite groups and ideologies are formed beneath the surface, there is a clear ethnic homogenisation of the population. This process passed violent and bloody period in the 90s has all the opportunities for progression.

Russian birth rate will continue to fall, contributing the depopulation of Russia, aging population will lead to a reduction in the workforce and, consequently, to the needs of migrants, in the republics of NC, on the contrary, the growth of the population will persist due to high birth rates here will be form a relatively young population structure, and because of the continuing sabotage and guerrilla fighting in these conflicts will be exacerbated, so migration to Russia will remain a means of survival for hundreds of thousands of people. As ever seeming to change the existing ethno-demographic processes are not defined, the migration flow of North Caucasian peoples to the north will only increase its speed.

The current situation in the Southern and the Stavropol region can be characterized as a transition into the second stage of migration. It is already possible to identify areas densely populated by certain ethnic groups and suggests the likely limits of large and small inter-ethnic conflicts, but it can still describe the situation as an ethnic mosaic. Too obvious rapid speed of change of the ethnic composition of the population. In all the border areas with the representatives of the republics of North Caucasus peoples is clearly seen high self-esteem in relation to the Russian population and formed in their minds of negative attitudes towards integration in the community. Continued migration enters the third stage with the appearance of areas with a clear division on the Russian (Orthodox), and various mono-Caucasian (Muslim) community, and then to the more significant areas adjacent to certain republics (final stage). Increasing of the share of migration of Caucasians in the future, apparently, may be indicative of increased migration closed of hinterland Russia to them and further "leaving" to undocumented migration in the scope of the SFR.

Trends of demographic situation of the Russian in the NC for the foreseeable future do not give grounds to hope for the stabilization of their numbers. In the near future ethnic composition of the surrounding republics and regions will undergo characteristic changes of an increasing proportion of the overall flow will be given by immigrants displaced far from the Russian ethno-cultural distance. This will require a fundamentally different policy framework which will draft the formation of civic identity and a set of measures to ensure its success.

Specialists working with the NC here comprise up to 30 points of tension, almost each of the peoples living in the region has a claim to its neighbors and the federal Center. In the existing world order is now the Russian government continues to ley steadily two different cultures - the Russian center and the ethnic periphery. Inherited from the past conflicts are not weaken or will not disappear without a trace. Folding relations will vary from cold to violence, but in most cases they will balance out closer to the middle range between these extremes. Between themselves a North Caucasian peoples, in all probability, will gravitate to the "cold peace", but the situation will be more like the "troubled coexistence" (with an enormous effort of the Centre).

At the present stage in the fight against the "alien" to most people ideology which is hostile to local traditions and characteristics, of the Muslim community have poured a lot of new members, which contributed to the widening and strengthening of their influence. After retiring from the open political arena Salafis (more precisely, the transition to illegal forms of activity) the traditional clergy remained as the sole representative and spokesman of the interests of local Muslims. Further politicization of Islam was no longer associated with the need for dealing with other religious and political trend, but with a radical reorientation of the Ummah and the transfer priority to the spiritual practices of the political sphere.

Periphery will give to the Centre provocation with the appearance of political unity, economic potential and military power. The beginning of a tipping point would be change the ideological base of North Caucasian Jamaat: will review the radical Islamic ideas in the direction of the nationalist (traditional), stop sabotage and guerrilla warfare, and will begin preparations for large-scale action. Latest ideas will be widely supported by the masses. Once again, the source of protest will be the Chechen Republic (after a change in leadership or personal loss - the friendly relations with the Centre). The situation will be similar to the first Chechen campaign, since the center will be able to play (this time is very difficult) to entrocaucasian contradictions and ambitions, and none of the neighboring nations would not support the rebellion.

And yet, why twenty years later the formation of the Russian Federation has developed its outcome is not in favor of religion and ethnotolerance despite the obvious changes on the part of religious freedom and Renaissance traditions and customs? The answer is obviously to be sought in the context of a larger problem: lack of understanding of the nature of religion and ethnicity, which entailed a series of errors led to the sad result that we now observe.

Today, Caucasians living in the South Federal District and in the Stavropol region on the borders with its republics are able to choose between the final settlement or return, assimilation, or the formation of a new national society in the new residence. If in this case mutual assimilation will not become, Russia, even without the conflict will turn into multisectoral country with all the potential for collapse. "Alienation, fear and even hatred that exists between Caucasians and other people in Russia will gain the momentum. In Russian there is strong negative attitude towards the Caucasus, it is even seen the faces of people on the streets."

However, we can assume that the awareness of the complexity of solutions of the problems in the NC and even impossible to resolve some of these can stimulate the Centre and contribute to the development of deeper and hidden forms of influence on their people. Rapid growth of Caucasians and decline in the proportion of Russian should not be a matter of speculation. The share of Russian is not a matter of life strategy of the state. In pre-revolutionary Russia and the USSR Russian were never an absolute number. The overwhelming demographic dominance of one group is not a guarantee of a fortress state, because even 1% of the population and territory, which are Chechens and Chechnya in Russia, could become the basis for large-scale war and divide the whole country.

Russia needs an upgrade of ethnicity - a synthetic, pragmatic, performing a constructive role. On the one hand it must be a neo-conservative modernization taking into account already missed opportunities with the renaissance of religion and nationalism, on the other - the secular-cosmopolitan and globalization, with examples of the leading countries of East and West. Modernization of ethnicity involves a complex social and psychological transformation. However, Russia is much more likely never to modernize, even limited, than to hold it successfully. Equally disappointing conclusion follows from an analysis of the dynamics of Russian society and of the many facts and social trends of recent years, which only confirms the lack of social and progressive lifestyle as ordinary citizens and the political leaders.

It's safe to say that all of the modernization program of ethnicity, even if they were developed, would be doomed to fail, because their authors because of its russiansentrists vision will not be able to rise to an adequate understanding as processes of globalization and as multi-ethnic nature of Russian society. However, there was not and could not be of such a program and a national ethnoelit least because they are ideologically "captivity" of the federal center and do not reflect on the abuse of religious and Traditional factors. However, there are other more weighty than the preservation of certain stereotypes of consciousness, the reasons for which the power of the majority is not interested in the modernization programs. This is, to put it mildly, their isolation from the real problems of the ethnic issue and the rate for those groups who in today's no upgrade is not only unnecessary but also dangerous.